Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, travel restrictions have emerged as crucial interventions for mitigating the spread of the virus. In this study, we enhance the predictive capabilities of our model, Sequence-to-Sequence Epidemic Attention Network (S2SEA-Net), by incorporating an attention module, allowing us to assess the impact of distinct classes of travel distances on epidemic dynamics. Furthermore, our model provides forecasts for new confirmed cases and deaths. To achieve this, we leverage daily data on population movement across various travel distance categories, coupled with county-level epidemic data in the United States. Our findings illuminate a compelling relationship between the volume of travelers at different distance ranges and the trajectories of COVID-19. Notably, a discernible spatial pattern emerges with respect to these travel distance categories on a national scale. We unveil the geographical variations in the influence of population movement at different travel distances on the dynamics of epidemic spread. This will contribute to the formulation of strategies for future epidemic prevention and public health policies.

Storm surge is a major natural hazard in coastal regions, responsible both for significant property damage and loss of life. Accurate, efficient models of storm surge are needed both to assess long-term risk and to guide emergency management decisions. While high-fidelity regional- and global-ocean circulation models such as the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model can accurately predict storm surge, they are very computationally expensive. Here we develop a novel surrogate model for peak storm surge prediction based on a multi-stage approach. In the first stage, points are classified as inundated or not. In the second, the level of inundation is predicted . Additionally, we propose a new formulation of the surrogate problem in which storm surge is predicted independently for each point. This allows for predictions to be made directly for locations not present in the training data, and significantly reduces the number of model parameters. We demonstrate our modeling framework on two study areas: the Texas coast and the northern portion of the Alaskan coast. For Texas, the model is trained with a database of 446 synthetic hurricanes. The model is able to accurately match ADCIRC predictions on a test set of synthetic storms. We further present a test of the model on Hurricanes Ike (2008) and Harvey (2017). For Alaska, the model is trained on a dataset of 109 historical surge events. We test the surrogate model on actual surge events including the recent Typhoon Merbok (2022) that take place after the events in the training data. For both datasets, the surrogate model achieves similar performance to ADCIRC on real events when compared to observational data. In both cases, the surrogate models are many orders of magnitude faster than ADCIRC.

A network is composed of a set of nodes, or vertices, with connections between them. Network data arise in a wide range of fields, and include social networks, collaboration networks, communication networks, biological networks, food webs and are a useful way of representing interactions between sets of objects. Of particular importance is the elaboration of random graph models, which can capture the salient properties of real-world graphs. Following the seminal work of Erd os and R enyi (1959), various network models have been proposed; see the overviews of Newman (2003b, 2009), Kolaczyk (2009), Bollob as (2001), Goldenberg et al. (2010), Fienberg (2012) or Jacobs and Clauset (2014). In particular, a large body of the literature has concentrated on models that can capture some modular or community structure within the network. The first statistical network model in this line of research is the popular stochastic block-model (Holland et al., 1983; Snijders and Nowicki, 1997; Nowicki and Snijders, 2001). The stochastic block-model assumes that each node belongs to one ofp latent communities, and the probability of connection between two nodes is given by ap p connectivity matrix. This model has been extended in various directions, by introducing degree-correction parameters (Karrer and Newman, 2011), by allowing the number of communities to grow with the size of the network (Kemp et al., 2006), or by considering overlapping communities (Airoldi et al., 2008; Miller et al., 2009; Latouche et al., 2011; Palla et al., 2012; Yang and Leskovec, 2013). Stochastic block-models and their extensions have shown to offer a very flexible modeling framework, with interpretable parameters, and have been successfully used for the analysis of numerous real-world networks.